Frontier Lens reads the same five public lists every day and logs each new advance that has a primary source. The lists never change, so this year compares fairly with 2020.
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Every verified approval, peer-reviewed result, measured record and checkable release since January 2020, counted the same way every day. Pick a field to focus every chart below.
An interactive map of technology: what has been proven, what is moving now, what comes next, and what each step is still waiting on.
Progress counts only checkable evidence. Dates right of “Today” are forecasts; choose whose in Dates.
Pick whose dates the map shows from the Dates menu; each person’s panel entry links to where they said it, and a node’s panel lists everyone’s prediction side by side. Ray Kurzweil graded his own record at 86% correct (2010); independent volunteer grading found about 42% true or weakly true for 2009 (LessWrong, 2013) and roughly 24% for 2019 (LessWrong, 2020). Bottleneck sources are linked beside each item; unlinked items are the map’s own judgement. Metaculus figures were read from search results in October 2026 and may have moved since. Tractability is scored 1–5: 5 means a clear engineering path that is well funded, 1 means it still needs unknown science.